Nothing to see here, except the Detroit Lions, who won their second playoff since 1992, their third since 1957, kept home field thanks to their forever-rival Green Bay Packers waxing the Dallas Cowboys, and head into Sunday afternoon’s Divisional Round game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 6.5-point favorites across Michigan sportsbooks. (Best bang for the buck at -108 at FanDuel).
What a difference a few decades makes, eh?
The Lions are -275 on the moneyline at BetMGM, and the total for the game is set at a juicy 49, with action at -110 on either side of the number at Caesars Sportsbook.
The total is up there for good reason: Neither team is particularly adept at defending against the pass, and both offenses are particularly good at passing.
The Lions give up the third-most passing yards per game, the Bucs give up the sixth most. And while we can dive deep into advanced stats, let the record show: These teams aren’t so hot against the pass.
For the Lions, it comes down to a relatively simple equation in their passing game: Can they keep the Bucs blitz away from Jared Goff? The Eagles and their vaunted offensive line were not able to do that last week against the Bucs, and they paid dearly. According to Next Gen Stats, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts was under pressure in under 2.5 seconds 13 times, a career high.
What does this mean for Goff?
According to Pro Football Focus, when his pocket was clean, Goff had a 113.8 quarterback ranking. When the pocket wasn’t clean? It was 64.4. When blitzed, 89.2, when not blitzed, 102.7.
And while this does not seem to bode well, know this: The Bucs and Lions played Week 6, the Bucs blitzed and pressured, and Goff came out the other side looking pristine in the Lions 20-6 victory.
Player props
On the player prop front, Goff’s passing yardage number is as low as 275.5 at PointsBet, a Fanatics Experience (that’s at -115). If you want the under, DraftKings is at 281.5 at -115.
Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield’s number is lower, set at 256.5 at -115 at either side at BetMGM.
On the anytime touchdown front, Amon-Ra St. Brown is even odds at BetMGM, David Montgomery is -115 at the same, Jahmyr Gibbs is +110 at Caesars. Remember: In all but one game this season, Montgomery or Gibbs have found paydirt.
Speaking of the running back duo, Montgomery’s rushing yardage prop is at 55.5 at -115 on either side at Caesars, and Gibbs’ is 45.5 at -115 on either side at the same book.
The Lions and Bucs kick off at 3 p.m. Sunday on NBC.
Photo: Ryan Kang/Getty Images
